The Redistricting Shift: Democrats Look to State Legislatures as 2028 Beckons

The US Supreme Court’s decision has significantly tilted the redistricting battle in favor of Republicans. However, Democrats have not given up hope; instead, they’re redirecting their attention to state legislative races, aiming to build a foundation for more favorable electoral maps by 2028.

Given their limited options before this year’s midterms, Democrats’ strategic pivot makes sense. With fewer state governments under their control than Republicans and several commissions drawing maps rather than lawmakers, significant gains in the near term are unlikely. However, the calculus changes when looking ahead to 2028.

In states like Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, and Washington, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping legislative chambers or building supermajorities. Control of these state governments could translate into more favorable congressional maps for the 2028 election cycle, with high stakes but also significant rewards.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) is leading this effort, investing $50 million to flip up to 650 legislative seats across 42 chambers in about two dozen states. This is a daunting task, but necessary if Democrats hope to counterbalance Republican gains from the past year.

A key aspect of this shift is the emphasis on building governing power at the state level. Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, noted that “every election now matters for redistricting and democracy.” By investing in legislative races, Democrats recognize that control of these chambers will be crucial in shaping the electoral landscape by 2028.

The consequences of this strategic pivot are far-reaching. If Democrats can build momentum at the state level, they may create new congressional seats or protect existing ones from Republican gerrymandering. In Oregon and Nebraska, for instance, Democrats are working to flip legislative chambers that could advance more favorable redistricting plans.

While Republicans have made significant gains in recent years and the Supreme Court’s decision has given them an added advantage, Democrats are not giving up. Instead, they’re choosing to focus on building a strong foundation of power at the state level.

The battle for control of legislative chambers will be fierce this fall, but it also presents an opportunity for Democrats to lay the groundwork for future success. By investing in these elections and working to build governing power, Democrats can create a more favorable electoral landscape by 2028 – one that could ultimately benefit their party’s prospects for years to come.

The redistricting battle is not just about numbers; it’s about the very fabric of our democracy. By engaging in this fight and focusing on state legislative races, Democrats are demonstrating their commitment to creating a more representative and equitable electoral system – one that will benefit all Americans, not just those with the most power and influence.

As the stakes grow higher, so do the consequences of failure. But for Democrats, the rewards of success in 2028 far outweigh the risks. By choosing to focus on state legislative races, they’re taking a crucial step towards creating a more democratic electoral system – one that will endure long after this year’s midterms are but a memory.