Putin Is Afraid Of An Election He Can’t Lose

As Russia’s State Duma elections approach, the country’s domestic politics are heating up in ways that would be predictable to anyone who has been paying attention to the war in Ukraine. The latest salvo came from the nationalist Rodina party, which filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court to disqualify the Yabloko faction from participating in the elections on the grounds that they are effectively seditious foreign agents.

The move may seem like just another example of the Kremlin’s attempts to suppress dissent and maintain its grip on power. But there is more at play here than meets the eye. Putin’s regime has deemed it necessary to ban a party that poses no serious challenge to its rule in an election where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. This speaks volumes about the growing unease within the Kremlin.

The war in Ukraine, initially seen as a distant affair, has come home with a vengeance. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have caused widespread destruction and disruption, exposing the vulnerabilities of Putin’s war effort. Russia faces severe nationwide gas shortages, and mounting local discontent is growing.

The economic toll of the war cannot be overstated. Despite initial predictions that Russia would prove economically resilient in the face of sanctions, the Kremlin’s wartime economy has led to major distortions, including rising inflation and acute labor shortages. The country’s National Wealth Fund has been drawn down to cover wartime expenses, leaving it with limited resources.

The manpower situation is becoming increasingly precarious. Troops from foreign locales such as Africa and North Korea are being used to supplement the Russian military, and rumors circulate that the Kremlin is mulling another mass mobilization later this year. This would be a highly unpopular move among Russians, who have already seen the devastation of last year’s mobilization.

Putin’s regime has taken drastic measures because ordinary Russians now perceive the war as affecting their daily lives in ways they never thought possible. As the consequences of Putin’s adventurism increasingly come home, even limited dissent has become a threat to the Kremlin’s preferred worldview.

The ban on Yabloko, with its “For Peace and Freedom” slogan, is not just a symbolic attack on Russian liberalism but also a desperate attempt by the Kremlin to silence any voices of opposition. The question now is whether this move will backfire and galvanize further resistance among Russians who are increasingly disillusioned with Putin’s leadership.

As we approach the elections in September, it remains to be seen how this drama will play out. One thing is certain: the war has come home, and Putin’s fears are warranted. The Russian people can see the devastation firsthand and know that their lives are being affected by it.