The Summit’s Afterglow: What Happens Next is What Matters Most

The Washington meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has concluded, leaving behind a flurry of diplomatic fanfare and speculation about what was achieved. However, the real test of its success lies not in agreements reached or smiles exchanged, but in what happens next.

Nong Hong, an expert at the Institute for China-America Studies, notes that meetings scheduled before and after the Washington encounter are significant. These carefully calibrated interactions demonstrate a commitment to building a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability.” Yet, high-sounding phrases often hide deeper complexities.

The Sino-US relationship is plagued by embedded differences on key issues like trade, technology, and Taiwan. Washington’s demands for tariff reductions, increased Chinese purchases of US agricultural and energy products, and access to critical minerals are unlikely to be met without significant concessions from Beijing. Regional security concerns have long bedeviled Sino-US relations.

To secure tangible benefits from the summit, both sides must find common ground. Trump needs results that will placate his domestic constituency and shore up his negotiating credentials. Xi Jinping faces the daunting task of convincing hardliners in Beijing that greater consistency in US policy on Taiwan, technology restrictions, and trade measures is a worthwhile price to pay for improved relations.

The historical context of Sino-US diplomacy is marked by tumultuous periods, such as the 1980s when Washington’s efforts to engage with Beijing were met with skepticism. More recent tensions surrounding trade wars and human rights concerns have driven a wedge between the two nations.

Progress in Sino-US relations is often incremental and rarely linear. What happens next will depend on a delicate balance of interests, concessions, and compromises – not just between Trump and Xi, but also within their respective governments and among stakeholders who shape policy.

As we await the fallout from this summit, it’s essential to keep our eyes fixed on the horizon. We must consider the implications of any agreements reached in Washington, Beijing’s response to concessions made by Xi Jinping, and the consequences for US-China relations if these understandings are tested – and potentially found wanting – in the face of the next bilateral dispute.

Only time will tell whether this latest iteration of Sino-US diplomacy has truly laid the groundwork for a more stable and cooperative relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The real value of any summit lies not in fleeting excitement, but in what happens next – long after the cameras have stopped rolling and the diplomats have packed their bags.

In the months to come, we will be watching closely for signs of progress or regress on key issues facing Sino-US relations. Will the Washington meeting’s understandings hold up under scrutiny? Or will the weight of embedded differences prove too great to overcome?