The Rocket Problem India Cannot Launch Away

India’s space program has made significant strides in recent years, with new rockets and launch vehicles vying for attention. However, beneath the headlines lies a more complex challenge: India needs not just capable rockets but also a robust and flexible launch infrastructure to meet its increasingly ambitious plans for accessing space.

The distinction between capability and capacity has been lost in the excitement surrounding new launches. While India’s rocket fleet is expanding, it remains unclear whether it can meet the growing demand for access to space. The country’s manifest includes projects like Chandrayaan-4, human spaceflight, and a future space station – all of which require more than just small-lift capability.

India has averaged five orbital launches per year over the past decade, but even with planned upgrades and production improvements, this may not be enough to meet its declared program through 2030. Commercial ambitions face a similar constraint: customers look at access too, not just heritage, and India needs to ensure it can offer a competitive launch schedule.

The emergence of private companies like Skyroot Aerospace has brought attention to the Indian space sector, but their success should be viewed in context. Vikram-1’s payload capacity is currently limited, and while it creates an additional route to orbit for smaller payloads, India’s launch requirement is increasingly heavier than that. A PSLV can carry several times Vikram-1’s payload, and larger satellite systems and human spaceflight missions require medium- or heavy-lift capability.

The government cannot rely solely on private companies to solve the country’s launch challenges. Instead, it needs to recognize the limitations of one category of vehicle in solving another category’s problem. India requires additional launch infrastructure, independent of existing facilities. The planned small-launch complex at Kulasekarapattinam is important but will not resolve the medium- and heavy-lift challenge on its own.

To meet demand, production capacity must rise with the growth of the space program. Propulsion research should extend beyond traditional institutions, and private companies need customers capable of sustaining them through the long period between proving a rocket can fly and proving it can become a repeatable business. The government cannot simply announce that the private sector has arrived and then retreat from the launch business.

The recent intervention by nine employee bodies representing Isro and Department of Space employees highlights the need for sustained investment in India’s space program, including its human resources. Creating a capable workforce is essential to designing, building, and operating complex systems like those required for human spaceflight.

Ultimately, success will require collaboration between the public and private sectors, sustained investment in infrastructure, and recognition of India’s true capacity requirements.