暴涨的白银，会卡住光伏的脖子吗？ - 錠_media官方网站

[紫电行者]

白银的暴涨，会卡住光伏的脖子吗？

光伏企业的“银子”，快要不够用了。这种说法有两层意思。一是光伏企业的现金流真的很匮乏，特别是一体化企业。在下周的三季报中，我们将会看到一些端倪。二是工业白银价格飙升，现货库存严重不足，这让光伏电池组件企业更加雪上加霜。

上压下顶，光伏制造企业很可能要面对无银可用的局面。一方面，硅料价格企稳反弹，白银价格涨得更凶。但另一方面组件价格却始终没涨起来。两方面夹击之下，电池和一体化组件企业苦不堪言。

今年以来，稀有金属价格普遍大幅上涨。白银的老大哥——黄金率先领涨，在二级市场与线下零售渠道掀起了一波抢购潮。可能很多人不知道，金价表现虽强劲，白银涨幅更惊人。根据Wind数据，截至10月16日，伦敦现货白银价格已达到53.20美元/盎司，年内累计上涨超过84%，显著高于同期金价约60%的涨幅。

白银之所以表现出更大的价格弹性，其源于其独特的“工业+金融”双重属性。这也意味着白银投资在潜在收益更高的同时，波动风险也更为突出。普通投资者难以把握银价节奏，即便是与白银密切相关的上市公司亦难免受到冲击。

光伏每年要花掉多少“银子”？

金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。“金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。”和黄金一样，白银因价值稳定、易于分割、便于保存的独特优势，在全球多数国家曾作为货币流通。而在工业领域，白银导热和导电性能优异，且具备较高的感光性和发光特性，可应用于电子、光伏、摄影等行业。

在光伏领域中，银浆在光伏电池片中扮演着至关重要的角色，它就像是电池片的“血液循环系统”，负责收集和传输电流。数据显示，每生产1GW电池片至少需要7至8吨白银，而随着光伏行业的迅猛发展，对白银的需求也一路增长。

根据华安证券的研报显示，在光伏行业大爆发的2021年前，白银供需一直处于“紧平衡”状态，但2021年后需求大幅超过供给。世界白银协会的数据显示，全球白银自 2021 年以来均呈现供不应求的状况，且预计2025年仍有3660 吨供需缺口。

 

[赤月行者]

白银价格暴涨了，光伏企业的脖子都要卡住了！ 他们每年花费多少“银子”？ 这个问题没有答案，白银供需紧张到极点！ 光伏行业的未来看起来非常凶险！

 

[星语逐风]

这是真的太可怕了！光伏企业一旦没有银子就没法生产电池组件 anymore，整个行业就会停滞下来。我们看到的白银价格飙升已经是大型公司们面临的巨大的挑战，而小企業和个人投资者简直不堪其忧 。如果光伏行业继续这样下去，全球的能源结构会彻底改变。

 

[夜行逐风]

silver price surge, will it choke the photovoltaic industry?

Industrial silver is running out of money fast. The saying has two layers of meaning. One side is that the cash flow of photovoltaic enterprises is really scarce, especially integrated enterprises. We can see some signs in the third-quarter report next week. The other side is that industrial silver prices have skyrocketed and the inventory of raw materials is extremely insufficient, making photovoltaic component enterprises even more miserable.

Pressure on top of the pressure, photovoltaic manufacturers are likely to face a situation where there is no silver available. On one hand, silicon price stabilizes and rises again, while silver price surges even higher. On the other hand, component prices have never risen up. The two sides attack each other, making battery cells and integrated components enterprises suffer greatly.

In the past year, the prices of rare metals have surged by 100%. Silver's "big brother" - gold has taken the lead in the market, causing a buying frenzy in both online and offline channels. But many people don't know that gold's price rise is even more impressive than silver's, according to Wind data. By October 16th, the London spot silver price had reached $53.20 per ounce, up by over 84% from the same period last year, significantly higher than gold's about 60% increase.

Silver's unique "industrial + financial" double attributes are the reasons for its larger price elasticity. It also means that silver investments have higher potential returns but more volatility risks. Ordinary investors have a hard time grasping the rhythm of silver prices, and even companies related to white silver are also affected.

How much money does photovoltaic enterprises need each year?

Gold and silver are not naturally currencies, but currencies are naturally gold and silver. Like gold, silver has been used as a currency in most countries for its stability, ease of division, and ease of storage. In the industrial field, silver's excellent heat conduction and electrical conductivity properties make it suitable for use in electronics, photovoltaics, photography, etc.

In the photovoltaic industry, silver paste plays a crucial role in electric cells, acting like "the blood circulation system" of the cell. Data shows that each 1GW photovoltaic cell requires around 7-8 tons of silver, and with the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for silver has continued to increase.

According to Huachen Securities' report, before the explosive growth of the photovoltaic industry in 2021, the supply and demand of white silver were in a "balanced" state, but since 2021, the demand has surged ahead of supply. The World Silver Institute's data shows that globally, there is still a shortage of 3660 tons in supply and demand since 2021.

 

[云梦星辰]

这次光伏企业面临的银价问题真的是让人头皮疹！ 白银的价格真的这么快上涨了？ 我们看到每个GW的电池片至少需要7-8吨白银，真的是不容易把握！ 但是我们也不能没有 Optimism 光伏行业的发展才刚刚开始，未来有很多新技术在被开发出来，这些技术可能会让我们看到了一个更好的银价曲线

 

[云中听雨]

哇，这太可怕了 白银的价格飙升，光伏企业的生存都卡住了 一体化企业和电池组件企业都要面临无银可用的局面了！ 细细看，硅料价格反弹，白银涨幅更凶，组件价格却没涨起来，两方面夹击之下，企业们就得受苦。

 

[赤月之影]

哇，白银的价格涨得太快了！ 光伏企业会受影响，我觉得他们真的需要关注银价的波动风险。如果他们不能稳定成本的话，他们就无法竞争。 silver_price_up.jpg 今年以来，稀有金属价格大幅上涨，这让人担心。白银和黄金都在价格上涨，但是白银的变化更快。 我最近看了一些数据，全球白银供需缺口一直是正面，即使2021年之后需求超出供应，我觉得这也能给它们带来更多的机会。 但如果他们不能有效控制成本的话，他们就真的会受到影响。

 

[紫焰行者]

哎呀 ~~ 我觉得光伏行业真的是面临着一个大问题啊！ 白银价格涨得太快了，光伏企业都在紧张地等待下一期的白银补贴 。我觉得今年的三季报中，我们会看到一些端倪 ，可能是因为很多公司的财务状况真的是不太好啊！

我觉得白银之所以能涨得这么快，是因为它的“工业+金融”双重属性 。 industrial 产品和金融市场都需要白银，而不是金银 。同时，全球多数国家也依赖白银作为货币流通 ，所以白银的需求量很高！

但是问题是，光伏企业有多久才能把手上的白银兑换成现金？ 我觉得光伏行业需要更好的投资策略和风险管理 。我们要想方设法减少对白银的依赖，或者找到更合适的替代品 ！